Dear WSC
I write to you concerning Simon Creasey’s fascinating article Parting Shots (WSC 259), in which Ignacio Palacios-Huerta of the London School of Economics describes that, in penalty shootouts, the team that taking a penalty first wins 60.5 per cent of the time. He then goes on to say that the team kicking first “has a 21 per cent greater probability of winning the shootout”. I don’t cast doubt on Mr Palacios-Huerta’s abilities as a statistician, but it is possible that he meant 21 per cent more probability of winning. If Team X has a 60.5 per cent probability of winning, then Team Y therefore has a 39.5 per cent probability. Team X’s probability is [(((60.5 / 39.5) -1) x 100) =] 53 per cent greater than Team Y’s of winning the shootout. Or, in other words, that Team X wins 21 per cent more matches means that their chances are 53 per cent better than Team Y’s for any given shootout. We can be sure that this is precisely what was going through Rio Ferdinand’s head after extra time in Moscow.
Patrick Finch, Eskilstuna, Sweden
Search: ' Richard Murray'
Stories
Dear WSC
Why does Andy Gray keep saying “pick the bones out of that”? It’s an expression he’s come to use in every post-match analysis he does on Sky, usually in relation to a slow-motion replay of a goalmouth incident. But it’s become so frequent that it’s almost a verbal tic, as though he doesn’t realise he’s saying it. This suggests a deep-seated trauma. Could it be that he is haunted by an incident when he failed to pick the bones out of a fish, say, and consequently nearly choked while in a packed restaurant? Either that or he’s replying a vivid and unsettling dream. But it could be worse. Imagine the look of alarm on Richard Keys’ face as Andy stares into the middle distance and mutters: “The defence was as exposed as someone standing naked in front of everybody they went to school with, plus their mother and other female members of the family.”
James Potter, via email
Poor results certainly hurt Iain Dowie at Charlton but, as Tom Green explains, the club’s commitment to a continental-style structure both helped cost him his job and land him the post in the first place
When Charlton recruited Iain Dowie, few people realised that a potentially more significant appointment had already been made. In May, days after Alan Curbishley and his coaching team had departed, Andrew Mills, a former agent, was appointed the club’s first “general manager – football”. Later, when Iain Dowie was appointed “head coach”, it became apparent that after 15 years with Curbishley as manager, Charlton were trying a new structure. There would be a new “four-man football management team”, said Charlton chairman Richard Murray: Dowie, his fellow coaches Les Reed and Mark Robson, and Andrew Mills.
Thursday 1 “I think I have arrived here at the perfect time,” says Andriy Shevchenko on joining Chelsea for £30 million. Arsenal are to be questioned over a loan payment made to their Belgian nursery club Beveren, which may have breached FIFA regulations. Ronnie Moore steps down as Oldham manager, to be replaced by John Sheridan.
Wednesday 1 A fantastic night in the Premiership sees the big four all mess up. Arsenal lose 3‑2 at home to West Ham – Sol Campbell, at fault for two goals, is subbed at half‑time and promptly leaves the ground – though Thierry Henry does at least beat Cliff Bastin’s club league goalscoring record with his side’s first. Man Utd are beaten 4‑3 at Blackburn, for whom David Bentley gets a hat-trick, and have Rio Ferdinand sent off. Liverpool concede a late equaliser in a 1‑1 draw with Birmingham, who had been down to ten men for over an hour. Chelsea also lose a lead late on in a 1‑1 draw at Villa. Newcastle lose 3‑0 at Man City to a backdrop of “Souness out” banners. Mark Wright is to sue Peterborough for being sacked over alleged racist remarks.