Dear WSC
I write to you concerning Simon Creasey’s fascinating article Parting Shots (WSC 259), in which Ignacio Palacios-Huerta of the London School of Economics describes that, in penalty shootouts, the team that taking a penalty first wins 60.5 per cent of the time. He then goes on to say that the team kicking first “has a 21 per cent greater probability of winning the shootout”. I don’t cast doubt on Mr Palacios-Huerta’s abilities as a statistician, but it is possible that he meant 21 per cent more probability of winning. If Team X has a 60.5 per cent probability of winning, then Team Y therefore has a 39.5 per cent probability. Team X’s probability is [(((60.5 / 39.5) -1) x 100) =] 53 per cent greater than Team Y’s of winning the shootout. Or, in other words, that Team X wins 21 per cent more matches means that their chances are 53 per cent better than Team Y’s for any given shootout. We can be sure that this is precisely what was going through Rio Ferdinand’s head after extra time in Moscow.
Patrick Finch, Eskilstuna, Sweden
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Stories
Dear WSC
The checklist of things to look out for in the Football League in WSC 259 brought to my mind the imminent passing of one of the great grounds. Ninian Park is every-thing a stadium was supposed to be: old-style floodlights; a terrace the length of one side of the pitch; seagulls taking flight in panic at the surge of electricity up the pylons; a club shop with no new kit in stock before the start of the season. Some even put our relatively low attendances in recent years down to the rusty roof, crumbling concrete and general air of neglect. Terraced houses? I bet the locals were delighted to hear we were leaving. Imagine their disappointment as the new ground started going up just over the road. I’m well aware that all of the above are the very reasons some supporters use as excuses not to come, but it does sadden me that there will be a whole generation of fans who will grow up in all-seat stadiums. For better or worse, Ninian Park truly is the last of its kind. Whatever anyone’s feelings towards Cardiff City, anyone who has been attending football since pre-1992 will join me in acknowledging the approach of a landmark moment. But this being Cardiff, it would be remiss of me not to mention the prospect of a good old-fashioned pitch invasion. I’m sure I’m not alone in being secretly glad that Swansea got promoted last year, just to send the old place off in style.
Gareth Dix, via email
A surprise quartet won promotion from the bottom division, remembers Simon Willis
The long-term significance
The season began with referees being instructed by the Football League to clamp down on foul play, especially the tackle from behind. As a consequence, bookings and dismissals reached record levels, as did players’ appeals against their cautions – a disciplinary points system was introduced the following season. Some club chairmen demanded the resignation of League secretary Alan Hardaker, saying they hadn’t been consulted over the new interpretations. “We are getting away from common sense and instead finding chaos,” said PFA chairman Derek Dougan. Many referees duly became more lenient as the season went on, but the days of blatant clogging were slowly coming to an end. A transitional era for the game was to be recorded by the alternative magazine Foul!, launched by Cambridge University students in October 1972.
Damien Blake looks back on the last season when a win meant two points and the FA Cup holders played outside the top flight
The long-term significance
This was the final season played under two points for a win. The addition of an extra point was one of the recommendations made in a document called Soccer – The Fight For Survival. Put together by a group of club officials and managers, including Terry Venables and Graham Taylor, the report had been triggered by concern over a variety of issues, notably falling attendances. This was also the last time to date that the FA Cup holders played outside the top flight. West Ham had won the trophy in May 1980, beating Arsenal 1-0 (with a rare Trevor Brooking header that was still a source of mirth to his Match of the Day colleagues 20 years later) but they had only finished seventh in Division Two, six points off a promotion place.
Friday 1 Sir Bobby’s interpretation of the Glazers’ outlook is rejected by Mark Longden of Man Utd fans group IMUSA: “I would like them to explain how they intend to pay off £500 million-worth of debt on profits of £19m. You do not need to be a financial expert to realise something big has to happen.” Middlesbrough’s new signing, Austrian defender Emanuel Pogatetz, may receive a six-month ban for an exceptionally violent tackle while on loan with Spartak Moscow; Boro reject Spurs’ £6m offer for Stewart Downing. George Burley is the new manager of Hearts. Good news for Wayne Rooney and Dennis Wise among others as FIFA scrap the ten-yards dissent rule. Greater Manchester Police reignite their old row with Wigan over an unpaid policing bill of £273,000, threatening to withdraw the JJB Stadium safety certificate unless it is paid by August.