Dear WSC
I write to you concerning Simon Creasey’s fascinating article Parting Shots (WSC 259), in which Ignacio Palacios-Huerta of the London School of Economics describes that, in penalty shootouts, the team that taking a penalty first wins 60.5 per cent of the time. He then goes on to say that the team kicking first “has a 21 per cent greater probability of winning the shootout”. I don’t cast doubt on Mr Palacios-Huerta’s abilities as a statistician, but it is possible that he meant 21 per cent more probability of winning. If Team X has a 60.5 per cent probability of winning, then Team Y therefore has a 39.5 per cent probability. Team X’s probability is [(((60.5 / 39.5) -1) x 100) =] 53 per cent greater than Team Y’s of winning the shootout. Or, in other words, that Team X wins 21 per cent more matches means that their chances are 53 per cent better than Team Y’s for any given shootout. We can be sure that this is precisely what was going through Rio Ferdinand’s head after extra time in Moscow.
Patrick Finch, Eskilstuna, Sweden
Search: 'Rory Delap'
Stories
The long throw is back with a bang, as Rory Delap bamboozles Aston Villa. Glen Wilson champions this strong-arm tactic
August 23, 2008, will be noted as the day that a traditional bastion of British football made a comeback, via an injury-time winning goal in the shadow of Sir Stanley Matthews’s statue. Yes, the long throw-in is back.
Saturday 2 Arsenal rampage past Charlton, 4-0 at Highbury. “He’s the most exciting player anywhere,” says Alan Curbishley of two-goal Thierry. Everton’s good run comes to an end with a 1-0 defeat to Spurs in a bad-tempered game highlighted by Jamie Redknapp’s clogging of Tim Cahill, which may be referred to the FA. “It was a momentous effort,” says Gary Megson, surrounded by streamers and popping corks, as West Brom win a match, beating Bolton 2-1. Wigan top the Championship once more by beating Rotherham 2-0 while Reading are held at home by Burnley. QPR go third by winning at Stoke, but Tony Pulis claims Marc Bircham play-acted to get Gerry Taggart sent off: “Taggart’s a tough warrior. He’s incensed.” “If the fans want me to go then they will keep doing what they have been doing,” says Leicester’s Micky Adams, who is barracked during a 1-1 home draw with Preston. In League One the Arsenal of Bedfordshire drop points for only the second time in a 1-1 draw at Tranmere, who score with a rebound from a twice-taken penalty. Brentford are nine points back in second after beating Oldham. Yeovil top League Two again, but only three points separate the top seven. Kidderminster blow a chance to get off the foot by letting in a 90th-minute equaliser to next-to-bottom Cambridge. Paul Gascoigne is to leave Boston after two months; Scottish club Morton are said to be mustard-keen to offer him their manager’s job. Why, Morton?
Saturday 1 Germany 1 England 5, and a hat-trick for Michael Owen after the home team had taken any early lead. “For a non-German it must have been a brilliant spectacle,” sighs Franz Beckenbauer. “I would have been happy with 2-1,” says Sven, containing his excitement. “When we scored the third, fourth and fifth goals we just looked at each other, trying to figure out what the hell was going on,” says a shocked David Beckham. Ireland’s 1-0 win over Holland means they will make the play-offs at least, while their opponents are out, tactical maestro and all. “The pitch was too dry, which made it more difficult for us to pass the ball,” Louis van Gaal explains. Wales and Scotland are held to goalless draws by Armenia and Croatia. Northern Ireland get a 1-1 draw in Denmark. An Englishman also makes the decisive contribution to events in Group 1 as a dubious last-minute penalty gives Slovenia a 2-1 win over Russia – referee Graham Poll is denounced as “a snivelling creep” by Russia’s Alexander Mostovoi. Former ITV commentator Brian Moore dies.
Sunday 1 Liverpool might enter the Vieira bidding war – “Of course we’d be interested in a player like him,” says M Gérard – though Arsenal continue to insist through collectively gritted teeth that he’s not for sale. Man Utd chief executive Peter Kenyon denies claims that United have been snubbed by several transfer targets. “Listening to all the speculation you'd think we were a club on the precipice. We’ve not had one rejection.” Brazil lose another World Cup tie, 1-0 in Uruguay, which leaves them barely hanging on to South America’s fourth automatic qualifying place.