Yeah, Munster look doomed in their quest to be the second-best runners-up based on their laboured display today. Leinster, on the other hand, do look likely to be lucky losers if they get a bonus-point win over Rogin's lot.
Munster definitely have a chance, I wouldn't think a bonus pt win in Exeter is by any means a foregone conclusion.
Confusing your Irish provinces there El Tel. Leinster are at Exeter
Should've been clearer there - I was saying Munster have a chance to progress if Leinster fail to get a bonus pt victory at Sandy Park, which is conceivable. Looking at the permutations they could both advance though, provided Montpellier lose to Toulon.
Match of the week next week has to be Leicester-Toulouse at Welford Rd which will decide the winner of Pool 2 - there is every chance the loser will not advance as a runner up.
With the score at 20-20 and Northampton pushing for a fourth try to get a win & bonus point and a chance of qualifying for the Heineken quarter-finals, hosts Glasgow break for an amazing try finished with a stunning solo run to mean the Saints don't even get in to the Amlin. Brilliant climax.
Leinster get the win and the four try bonus point but a lot of talk in the commentary about pushing for even more tries. I presume this is because the last quarter-final place for a runner-up might come down to tries scored over the pool stages?
So, the 5 teams who've qualified so far:
6th spot will go to winner of Toulouse-Leicester.
The 7th to the winner of Pool 1: Sarries will advance with a win or a Munster defeat. Munster need a win AND a Sarries loss.
The 8th (second runner up) is currently occupied by Leinster. Munster are still alive for this spot but I am not sure who has the tiebreaker as of right now in the event of a bonus pt win for Munster tommorow.
If all four home sides win the QFs as seeded, the final will be between two teams who've never reached a Heineken Cup final before, the first time that will have happened since Northampton-Munster in 2000.
Yeah, all played over the weekend of 6-7 April. So some of these sides might be very different ones (in terms of both form and maybe even personnel) by then to the ones we've seen over the last few weeks, which makes any predictions above the usual home advantage bias tricky to say the least.