Yeah, Munster look doomed in their quest to be the second-best runners-up based on their laboured display today. Leinster, on the other hand, do look likely to be lucky losers if they get a bonus-point win over Rogin's lot.

Munster definitely have a chance, I wouldn't think a bonus pt win in Exeter is by any means a foregone conclusion.

El Tel wrote:


Confusing your Irish provinces there El Tel. Leinster are at Exeter

Antepli Ejderha wrote:


Should've been clearer there - I was saying Munster have a chance to progress if Leinster fail to get a bonus pt victory at Sandy Park, which is conceivable. Looking at the permutations they could both advance though, provided Montpellier lose to Toulon.

Match of the week next week has to be Leicester-Toulouse at Welford Rd which will decide the winner of Pool 2 - there is every chance the loser will not advance as a runner up.

Biarritz v Harlequins is being played on a large muddy sponge, it's more like 'Jeux Sans Frontières' than rugby.

So with the dead pool out of the way we move onto the real action.

Pick of today is Montpelier versus Toulon or perhaps Castres at home to Ulster.

The pick of the round is tomorrow with Leicester hosting Toulouse.

Not sure how much of an effect the weather is going to have on these fixtures but from what Harry says it was a factor last night.

With the score at 20-20 and Northampton pushing for a fourth try to get a win & bonus point and a chance of qualifying for the Heineken quarter-finals, hosts Glasgow break for an amazing try finished with a stunning solo run to mean the Saints don't even get in to the Amlin. Brilliant climax.

.

Leinster get the win and the four try bonus point but a lot of talk in the commentary about pushing for even more tries. I presume this is because the last quarter-final place for a runner-up might come down to tries scored over the pool stages?

It's the first tie-breaker if two teams from different pools are equal on points.

Though it doesn't look terribly likely to come into play based on the table as it stands.

So, the 5 teams who've qualified so far:
Clermont,
Ulster,
Quins,
Toulon &
Montpellier.

6th spot will go to winner of Toulouse-Leicester.
The 7th to the winner of Pool 1: Sarries will advance with a win or a Munster defeat. Munster need a win AND a Sarries loss.
The 8th (second runner up) is currently occupied by Leinster. Munster are still alive for this spot but I am not sure who has the tiebreaker as of right now in the event of a bonus pt win for Munster tommorow.

As I read the table on Scrum, Munster would have the tiebreaker over Leinster if they get a bonus point win, but fail to get the (extremely unlikely) Saracens loss at home to winless Edinburgh.

Munster are currently three tries behind Leinster, but they need four to get the point that would allow them to draw even with Leinster.

Toulouse progress with a draw, Leicester need to win.

Thanks for clarifying ursus, so a bonus pt win will be enough for Munster. Hmm, will be interesting to see how Racing approach the game since they have nothing to play for.

Munster get the bonus point, and Leinster are out.

Toulouse will follow them into the Amlin unless they overcome a 9-0 Leicester lead at half time.

Saracens v Ulster in the quarters then? Ulster to be wearing Crusaders kit to add a bit of Jihadist spice to the game...

QF lineup:

Clermont - Montpellier
Harlequins - Munster

Saracens - Ulster
Toulon - Leicester

If all four home sides win the QFs as seeded, the final will be between two teams who've never reached a Heineken Cup final before, the first time that will have happened since Northampton-Munster in 2000.

Thanks for the draw Rogin.

Home sides have a huge advantage and the only away side I can see winning is Ulster. Where is that game going to be played?

All games after the six nations I presume.

Yeah, all played over the weekend of 6-7 April. So some of these sides might be very different ones (in terms of both form and maybe even personnel) by then to the ones we've seen over the last few weeks, which makes any predictions above the usual home advantage bias tricky to say the least.

I hope Harlequins win it now. There, I've said it.

Or Ulster, actually.

Saracens have a new ground where they plan to play the quarter final.

I wonder if either English side is going to be tempted to move their tie to a bigger ground to make more money.

I hope Clermont win it as they have taken the Heineken seriously over the years and this seems to be their best chance. Their destruction of Leinster in their own ground was a thing of beauty.