I've also wondered if his sky pointing might be related to that. He won't answer about it, as is his right.
Most of my reason for picking Murray is that I've always thought New York would be the place he finally makes a breakthrough. It seems the best suited of the slams for him, both in terms of how quickly the court plays and general temperaments, both his and the city's. It was the place where he won a junior Slam, and where he first made the final of a senior Slam. The lost post couched the tip a little more obliquely, but it was sort of there.
As for the draw, and the godawful scheduling the USTA inflicts on the top men, yes it is a hindernace and an advantage for Djokovic. But it's not a suprise for Murray, he knew his projected schedule for the title would include Federer/Djokovic on consecutive days. All that was to be determined was the order of it. Plus, the likelihood is, if things pan out as expected, that Murray-Federer would be the first semi on court. When the turn around is so short, those extra three ghours can matter. Also, whilst Federer-Murray might be a more intense match, playing David Ferrer is pretty wearying in it's own right.
But there is good news draw-wise today; Tsonga is out, having played like a drain. He was the projected QF opponent, and a very tough one at that. There are still challenges ahead for Murray, the probable route is now Lopez, Raonic, Cilic, but these are overcomable ones.