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Greece, or why Europe's doomed
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TOPIC: Greece, or why Europe's doomed
#353846
E10 Rifle
If this were really happening,what would you think
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posted 19-03-2010 21:46

 
We have a far more decent, sober and gentlemanly way of dealing with these sorts of things in Britain.
 
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Last Edit: 19-03-2010 21:47 By E10 Rifle.
 
#353852
Tubby Isaacs
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posted 19-03-2010 21:58

 
Unite can cover that- losing the office and work time for union activity- can't they? The labour law expert sounds hopeful.
 
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#354995
Anton Gramski
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posted 24-03-2010 11:18

 
Some interesting stuff in the press over here in the last couple of days to the effect that "California's next". Apparently, though CDS trades on US states are very small in volume, the premium demanded for California is now up to 300 basis points, which is very close to Greece's level. I wonder if the discourse about profligacy will change when the same principes are applied within the US?

Meanwhile, I have been thinking about football metaphors for the crisis (I know, I should get a life). I've been thinking that the current crisis is very similar to the ITV digital debacle. We've had a sudden one-time shock caused by the bursting of an unsustainable bubble. All nations were affected by it, but those that were less prudent before the crisis were more exposed after it. Greece, on this reading, is effectively Gillingham, having to let go players and plunging through the divisions.

Whaddaya think?
 
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#354998
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If this were really happening,what would you think
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ICQ#: Leyton Orient Mr T Custard cream Humane and convivial, yet angry and anxious Location: The bottom of the market
posted 24-03-2010 11:32

 
That would be a more apt analogy if it had been Sky that had gone bust. The ITV Digital collapse didn't really adversely affect the Premier League, who continued their love affair with the economics of the madhouse regardless.
 
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#363749
Brunislaw
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posted 14-04-2010 02:51

 
There was passing mention in this thread of big US banks' role in the Greece crisis, but I was wondering if anyone cared to read, or had read, the always Taibbi-like Matt Taibbi on similar practices within these very Yoo-nited States. He equates them to "what brought down Greece" without really getting into detail.

Anyway, it's a depressing read about financial rapine, and it mentions Greece, so it belongs in this (excellent) thread.
 
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#363777
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posted 14-04-2010 09:54

 
That is a really good article. Thanks for pointing it out Bruno.

What's the deal with Milan? It got name checked a couple of times there as being in a bit of trouble. Can anyone provide a quick precis? Or a link to an article (in english)?
 
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#363825
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posted 14-04-2010 12:04

 
Yeah, I was wondering about Milan, too. Urs?
 
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#363899
Anton Gramski
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posted 14-04-2010 14:27

 
I'm guessing it's this.
 
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#363905
caja dglh
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posted 14-04-2010 14:54

 
Bruno wrote:
There was passing mention in this thread of big US banks' role in the Greece crisis, but I was wondering if anyone cared to read, or had read, the always Taibbi-like Matt Taibbi on similar practices within these very Yoo-nited States. He equates them to "what brought down Greece" without really getting into detail.


Oh God, another Taibbi piece. This time Matt Taibbi learns about swaps and how people are dumb with them.

The swelling of contracts is banks worldwide - I have a fair few stories from my short life working in PFI / PPP in the UK that should have scared people years ago, yet do now as the economy is stumbling.

Swaps are just a classic example of people not reading the damn paperwork and signing things that a person convinces them is good without understanding.

What Greece did isn't that far from what Enron did. For some reason, shifting things off Government Balance Sheets has been ignored while they run the regulators that hound after the companies to stop the practice. Do as I say, not as I do. Then they whine when it collapses on them in a similar, spectacular fashion. Maybe this could lead to a study of accountability in Government trying to live beyond their means?
 
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#363917
Anton Gramski
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ICQ#: TFC, for my sins. Tom Hanks (sorry, Ly) In God We Trust; All Others Require Data Location: North York, FFS Birthday: 03/31
posted 14-04-2010 15:33

 
Public pensions and the future costs of health care with an aging population being only the two biggest off-public balance sheet nightmares.
 
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#363939
ursus arctos
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posted 14-04-2010 16:25

 
Gramsci's link identifies the "Milan issue".

I can't really say much more about it.
 
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#363966
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posted 14-04-2010 17:27

 
I would be impressed if they could find an expert witness swaps salesman who could say that, without doubt, the salesman knew what they were selling and insisted it was appropriate.

If banks stopped employing hustlers to sell these things and actually allowed those that understood to the front line, profits would go down but the world would hate them much less.
 
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#363974
ursus arctos
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posted 14-04-2010 17:42

 
Sorry, but say what? To whom?
 
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#363982
caja dglh
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posted 14-04-2010 18:13

 
Oh, I am just rumbling about swap sales people. I very much doubt whoever sold these understood much more about them than the buyer, save for how much commission they stood to make.

The amount of risk properly explained in some of the exotic transactions is highly distressing. Possibly only matched by government officials desire to make a fast buck and to then try and get out of bad decisions.

If it was an arbitration, I was just trying to think where the expert witness for the defence of the bank would be found.
 
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#364002
ursus arctos
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posted 14-04-2010 19:38

 
Well, if you are talking about the Jefferson County debacle, there is a reason why JP Morgan are out more than USD 700 million.
 
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#364032
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posted 14-04-2010 21:25

 
The ability of people to knowingly continue to pilage a client through ever worse structures and higher fees often makes me happy I didn't end up in that world. I don't think I could do it (in fact I know I couldn't).
 
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#369220
Anton Gramski
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posted 27-04-2010 17:42

 
Doomed, I say! Doomed!

The bit where Portugal is now apparently legally bound to provide bailout funds to Greece at a lower rate of interest than it is now paying on its own bonds is especially amusing. Not for the Portuguese, of course, but in a kind of schadenfreide-ish - "holy shit, what a train wreck" kind of way.

The apparent imminent crash of the euro, currently being predicted by CDS markets is interesting, too.
 
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#369397
ursus arctos
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posted 27-04-2010 22:55

 
This really doesn't look good. The IMF is talking about finding another Euro 10 biliion for Greece (perhaps from Russia and China), and Hungary is making unpleasant noises as well.

An 800 basis point spread (which is where Greece is right now) simply is not sustainable.
 
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#369403
posted 27-04-2010 23:07

 
The bit where Portugal is now apparently legally bound to provide bailout funds to Greece at a lower rate of interest than it is now paying on its own bonds is especially amusing. Not for the Portuguese, of course, but in a kind of schadenfreide-ish - "holy shit, what a train wreck" kind of way.

errr, we're going to give greece half a billion and our deficit is bigger than greece's, since eurostat told us that giving all that money to keep anglo Irish Bank alive so it can die more slowly, wasn't actually an investment, but was capital spending.

However I don't believe the greek figure, and neither does anyone else apparently.
 
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Last Edit: 27-04-2010 23:09 By The Awesome Berbaslug!!!.
 
#369409
ursus arctos
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posted 27-04-2010 23:17

 
All true, but you are still able to borrow for less than what you are supposed to get from Greece in terms of interest.

All because the markets trust the Irish more than the Greeks or Portuguese when it comes to actually getting the deficit down.
 
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