I didn't see a thread for this yet, so I figured I'd get it started. Cruzeiro has obviously done the business in a more emphatic way than the other preliminary qualifiers so far. Has anyone else had a chance to watch any of the games? Thoughts?

I haven't paid any attention to the qualifiers (midweek games in the Argentine league got in the way of most of the second legs this past week) but the one that stands out for me is Juan Aurich of Peru knocking out Tecos, a Mexican side. Given the Mexicans' hopes to do better this time than ever before (and remember Chivas and San Luis will enter at the quarter-finals after being kicked out by CONMEBOL in the swine flu scandal last year), and the relatively pathetic state of the Peruvian scene, that registers as a big shock.

The difference in scoreline between Cruzeiro's home and away legs is striking (7-0 winners in Brazil, a 1-1 draw at the altitude of Potosí) and telling because Brazilian club sides seem to travel to high altitude even bloody worse than Argentines for some reason. They don't have any seriously high-up matches in their group stage though, so let's see how far they go.

My predictions for group qualification:

1: Corinthians and Cerro Porteño
2: São Paulo and Monterrey
3: An interesting looking group for the defending champions, I reckon Estudiantes and Alianza Lima will get through. The presence of two Peruvian sides could negate a fair bit of Bolívar's advantage from their high-altitude home ground.
4: Lanús and Libertad with something to spare, if Lanús finally find their feet in the Copa (they got battered 6-3 by Argentinos yesterday in the league, as a result of resting most of their starters for Tuesday)
5: We don't yet know the last qualifier for this group - Newell's Old Boys of Argentina or Emelec or Ecuador - but either way I think it ought to be Internacional and Deportivo Quito who qualify.
6: Nacional and Cuenca
7: Ought to be Vélez and Cruzeiro, but I wouldn't bet against Colo-Colo to spring a surprise.
8: Caracas always make for a difficult group stage prediction because they'll throw a spanner or two in the works. Flamengo should get through, and the rest will depend on whether the other participants are Colón (Argentina) or Universidad Católica (Chile). For now I'll go for Fla and Caracas.

For what it's worth, here's my predictions:

1. Corithians and Independiente Medellin. I can't believe Cerro Porteño haven't been given some sort of suspension for the thuggery of their fans and players in both legs of the Sul Americana semi against Fluminense last year.

2. São Paulo and Nacional. São Paulo have just got to work out a way of getting past other Brazilian teams in the later stages.

3. Estudiantes and Alianza. Looking forward to seeing Veron again.

4. Lanus and Libertad

5. Internacional and Quito. Watch out for more young tslent emerging for Inter this year.

6. Banfield and Nacional*

7. Colo Colo and Cruzeiro. One of the strongest groups - Velez v Cruzeiro looks to be the pick of the first week's games.

8. Flamengo and Colon. Flamengo will be prioritising the Libertadores this year. Wagner Love and Adriano have already shown signs of gelling and hopefully Petkovic can resolve his current dispute with the club. It would be great to see Andrade win the Libertadores both as a player and as a manager.

* Complete guess

One factor that could be an influence this year is that the semis don't start till after the World Cup. It's possible that there might be a player exodus to Europe before the competition ends.

I haven't been paying attention to the qualifying, so I couldn't believe it when I read this thread and found out that Juan Aurich are in it. I should know this, but does the competition not disallow having two teams from the same country in the same group?

Don't know anything about Juan Aurich but I do know that Tecos are shite and always have been, so it doesn't surprise me they've been knocked out....

Given the distribution of qualifying teams and the fact there are eight groups and only ten participating countries, it would be very difficult (maybe impossible) for COMEMBOL to ensure that there was no chance that a group could end up with two teams from the same country.

If Emelec put out Newell's, there will be two Ecuadorian teams in Group 5, and the same goes for Universidad Catholica and Colon in Group 3 (two Chilean teams, in that case).

Tecos recently changed their name (from UAG Tecos to Estudiantes Tecos) and their colours (from white and red to claret and gold). It doesn't seem to have helped.

Not sure if you guys have got different info to the BBC, but they're reporting that because the two Mexican sides who had to pull out last year have been guaranteed entry at the last 16 stage, only 14 clubs will emerge from the first phase to join them - i.e., the 8 group winners and 6 best runners-up.

Which will mean some serious scrambling of back-of-fag packet calculations, like they have to do with the Rugby Heineken Cup every year (where 2 of 6 runners-up go through).

Crucially, it will be better to be runner-up in a group where there are two rubbish sides, so you can have 4 solid wins despite losing twice, than being in a group of 3 good sides and 1 crap one, and playing those games out as 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. Inequitable, but that's how it works with these rubbish "best runners-up" systems.

That's right. The two "worst" second place teams go home, and Chivas and San Luis go directly into the round of 16 without contesting this stage.

The most balanced (and therefore dangerous) groups to my eye are:

7: Velez, Cruziero, Colo Colo, Deportivo Italia
8: Flamengo, U de Chile, Caracas, Colon or U. Catolica

Thanks for that Rogin. I thought for some reason that the Mexicans were coming in at the quarter final stage, and wondered how that was going to work. This way makes sense (in as far as anything CONMEBOL do can be said to 'make sense').

I shall be starting to write my tournament preview for Soccernet tonight, so I'll link it here when it's online later in the week.

ursus arctos wrote:
Given the distribution of qualifying teams and the fact there are eight groups and only ten participating countries, it would be very difficult (maybe impossible) for COMEMBOL to ensure that there was no chance that a group could end up with two teams from the same country.

If Emelec put out Newell's, there will be two Ecuadorian teams in Group 5, and the same goes for Universidad Catholica and Colon in Group 3 (two Chilean teams, in that case).

Tecos recently changed their name (from UAG Tecos to Estudiantes Tecos) and their colours (from white and red to claret and gold). It doesn't seem to have helped.

I would also add that given the qualifying process it might be hard for CONMEBOL to separate teams from the same country. That is, if Estudiantes Tecos had won the match then having 2 Peruvian teams in a group would be moot, but CONMEBOL couldn't wait to find out which teams won the preliminary games to settle the groups (or they wouldn't wait, might be more fitting). Adding to that chaos is the fact that the 2nd leg of 2 preliminary matches take place this week as the group stages start for other groups. This, of course, reflects the kind of craziness that Sam has highlighted about CONMEBOL. UEFA would never do this. But then again the lack of total control by the federation over every minute detail is a refreshing change.

If this first week of group matches is anything to go by, it looks like Fox Sports Espanol in the US will show every game except 2 per week. Last year they held 1 game back for pay-per-view so we're losing an extra game this year, but at the end of the day, I can't really complain because this is excellent coverage. I assume, though, that PPV sales can't be very high so this is a product of Fox now having CL rights and needing to find space for the CL games. UEFA strikes again.

Well, we've got another group with two sides from one country - La U have put Colón out 5-3 on aggregate.

danielmak wrote:
But then again the lack of total control by the federation over every minute detail is a refreshing change.

I'm not sure about that phrasing. More like, 'the total lack of control...'! One of the most amusing things you can do is watching the draw for the group stage of the Copa Libertadores draw. Lots of distinguished-looking (note the looking elderly men in nice suits making themselves look total tools (which is what they are), because the draw's done before some domestic championships are even decided, so as many as half the participants aren't actually known. Thus it's all 'Ecuador 2 vs Mexico 4; Colombia 1 vs Argentina 5', and so on.

SamLKelly wrote:
Well, we've got another group with two sides from one country - La U have put Colón out 5-3 on aggregate.

danielmak wrote:
But then again the lack of total control by the federation over every minute detail is a refreshing change.

I'm not sure about that phrasing. More like, 'the total lack of control...'!

My point was that UEFA is so controlling that some of the chaos of CONMEBOL at least makes things more interesting.

Anyway, to the night's action. Libertad seems to be picking up where they left off last year: grinding out a win and in this case, although this time they were able to add a second when Lanus was forced to press more (compared to a lot of 1-0 wins last year, if memory serves me correct).

Newell's are out as well, after losing to Emelec last night, so it's only the defending champions from La Plata, and a few relatively surprising representatives from Buenos Aires left as Argentina's group stage sides.

When HEGS started, neither Banfield nor Lanús (fierce local rivals) had ever won a domestic championship. Three years on, they've got one apiece and although I wasn't expecting them to do much without the experience of playing in the competition (low expectations I've been forced to accept by recent Argentine performances, last year especially), Banfield beat Morelia last night and Vélez beat a nine-men Cruzeiro side in Liniers.

There's a tournament preview of sorts here on Soccernet.

Cruzeiro really had no chance once Gilberto had been sent off and Velez had scored within the first five minutes. Tottenham fans may be surprised that Gilberto was excellent for them last season mainly playing in a left sided midfield role and that Dunga has just recalled him to the national squad.

São Paulo had a predictable but uninspired 2-0 win over a weakened Monterrey team - they apparently regard their league game on Satuady as being more important - with Washington scoring twice though he's got a nerve claiming the first which was a clear own goal.

It's worth noting that Monterrey's league game on Saturday is their traditional Clásico against Tigres (at home), without question their biggest match of the domestic campaign.

Juan Aurich brought back down to earth with a bump earlier. Estudiantes score five goals in one Copa Libertadores match for the first time in their history. Goals here, though none of them are especially spectacular.

I've got a major problem: trying to watch as many games as possible, which by the time I am caught up the conversation has moved on and a need to avoid the conversation until I'm caught up because I don't want to see scores.

I can only say that I was surprised to see Cruzeiro dominated in such fashion even being a man down. I was expecting them to maintain that amazing form from the preliminary round.

Estudiantes was clearly the most impressive side in the first batch of group games, and I was glad to see Nacional (URU) come away with a hard fought win. I'm hoping Colo Colo does well tonight, although I might not know for a few days since Fox Sports Espanol (US channel that shows Libertadores games) decided that people need to see today's CL games 2 times each before showing the Colo Colo game at 1am. Of course the CL games are already shown on Fox Soccer Channel and Setanta Sports USA, whereas Fox Sports Espanol has exclusive rights to the Libertadores. Fools.

Also, since this seems to be the one thread where multiple South American teams and countries are discussed, I'm wondering if someone can shed some light on 2 questions I have. First, I can't remember any Uruguayan sides playing anywhere other than Estadio Centenario in the Libertadores or the Copa Sudamericana. Now, I have to assume that this is not the case for league play, and since the stadium only seems to be close to sold out when Penarol, Nacional, or Defensor plays, why are these other sides moving to Estadio Centenario for the continental cups?

Second, it seems that Kaka is now the rare exception of an attacking player who is able to stay put in Europe without melting down in some way. Goalies, defenders, and defensive midfielders seem to do fine, but any kind of attacking midfielder or forward just can't keep it together. I understand how difficult it can be for players who grow up in poor environments to be thrown into wealth and fame but this is true for other players from other African and South American countries and other than Riquelme, there just don't seem to be the same quantity of well known players having the same problems that the Brazilian players seem to have (and it's not just one league since the players seem to have problems in France, Italy, England, Russia, etc.). Any theories about this? Perhaps a good piece for WSC if someone has some insights.

Daniel, most Uruguayan clubs play their Libertadores games at the Estadio Centenario because their own home grounds are usually too small to host a Libertadores game. One of the exceptions actually is Nacional who usually play most of their games at their home ground Parque Central, it is only in late elimination rounds, if they advance that far, where Nacional will move to the larger Centenario to accomodate the larger crowds they will attract. But Nacional love to use the imposing Parque Central where the fans are practically on top of the playing field, to their advantage.

One of the 'small' Argentine sides, at least, look like they've got the hang on this Copa Libertadores lark. At very high altitude, in their own stadium, Deportivo Cuenca are hosting Banfield. The hosts apparently feel one (metaphorical) arsehole isn't enough for a team to have, and seem to think Banfield are the side they need to tear them a second one. It's 0-4 with 13 minutes to go, and it's been vicious. Cuenca have created absolutely piss all.

danielmak wrote:
Second, it seems that Kaka is now the rare exception of an attacking player who is able to stay put in Europe without melting down in some way.

I just wrote a really long reply to that, and then realised that further down your post you did specify 'Brazilian'. I think the real issue is that there simply aren't many Brazilian attacking midfielders any more, full stop. They're genetically engineering the beauty of their game, not even a Brazilian fan would deny that.

Of course, they're going to be heavy favourites for the World Cup this year, and the purists' logical choice Argentina wouldn't get near the thing even if they weren't going to have Maradona hindering them, but it's still a shame they're doing it.

Oh, and an aside on Nacional's Parque Central - it was the ground where the first ever World Cup match was played, and from the photos I've seen (I didn't visit it when I went to Montevideo but plan on putting that right this year) it doesn't seem to have been renovated since.