Has it occurred to anyone else that the GOP has allowed McCain to take the nomination because they don't like him and they know that it's time for a Democrat to win anyway and they're saving their A-list candidate for 2012?

America has not solved its race issues and like i said, the race is only this close because Obama is black.
And there is a difference beteween what people say they would do and what they will actually do when in the booth the the ticket in hand.
Add to that the electoral fraud that the GOP are capable of and McCain will scrape through.

I have just seen the new Chris Rock HBO special.

"Oh my God, I've just seen that Dave Stewart video toro posted.

TG, is it too late to retract that 10p bet?"

Double or quits Wingco?

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America has not solved its race issues and like i said, the race is only this close because Obama is black.

I don't think that's true at all. I think you underestimate the inherent appeal of conservatism, especially no-nothing belligerent conservatism, has for large part of the US population.

Plus, his race is a positive as well as a negative. It has helped to energize the black community who, I think, had become collectively depressed about national politics. It's also helped him to attract young people and others looking for a big change. The thought that we may witness the first black president (he'd be the first black leader of a major industrialized democracy too, wouldn't he?) fires people up.

There are some people who refuse to vote for him because he's black, but from what I've seen, those people aren't ashamed to tell pollsters that.

FF: I might agree with you except for the fact that the GOP has no A-list candidates after 2006 and the party's implosion under Bush. Look at how pitiful the field was in the primary.

We had a thread about that Dave Stewart song. I think it was said even then that it was a winner for McCain.

Forrest Whitacker's emoting is something to behold.

You gotta watch this video, it's comedy gold.

It's the minutes of a town-hall meeting from Wasila, Alaska when Sarah Palin was mayor, read by an unemployed (I'm guessing) actor.

http://nl.youtube.com/watch?v=iMocEINn-E8

**

Now I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but...
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/09/army_homeland_090708w/

TG, this is not a close race. It's not-closer, by some distance, than any race since Reagan-Mondale. And probably any race before then back to LBJ. Unless something very dramatic happens, and not something that would have to do with Blacknuss, it looks like being a complete blowout.

I don't want to be excessively optimistic, or complacent, or build up hopes. But it just isn't, on any metric, "a close race". It just isn't.

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GOP has no A-list candidates after 2006

Jeb Bush? Or have they given up the dynasty business now.

It's currently not close, Toro, but it's only just over 2 weeks since McCain led in the polls. So that suggests there are a lot more votes up for grabs still than there were in 1984. Of course, the trend is going Obama's way, and most events seem to be helping that shift, but it's not irreversible.

Here's a thing: I read in the paper the other day that Bush's poll rating were the lowest of an incumbent prez since Truman in 1952, so what in particular was going on back then to make him so unpopular?

Korea?

Mitch wrote:

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GOP has no A-list candidates after 2006

Jeb Bush? Or have they given up the dynasty business now.

I posted something a while back from a book review of a book about W., and it said that George H.W. Bush and Barbara always assumed Jeb would be president, and now they're heartbroken because they, and a lot of other people close to the Bush family, think W. fucked it up for Jeb, and they all thought that W. took what was rightfully Jeb's away from him. Jeb now apparently has no interest in running for president.

Etienne - right, but that was always, obviously, a bounce. Exclude the veep nominations and post-convention bounces, and we're basically still on a smooth curve for the past couple of months. In other words, there aren't many voters up for grabs, and the polls were systematically misleading during the period you're pointing to for reference.

And I would think even if Jeb wanted to, the Bush brand has been permanently spoiled.

E10 Rifle wrote:

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Here's a thing: I read in the paper the other day that Bush's poll rating were the lowest of an incumbent prez since Truman in 1952, so what in particular was going on back then to make him so unpopular?

The Korean War, as GO said, especially firing General MacArthur, i.e. looking to blame the military for a quagmire of his making. But I believe Bush recently crashed through the Truman floor even.