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Re:Getting What You Wish For (Hockey Edition) (1 viewing) (1) Guest
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TOPIC: Re:Getting What You Wish For (Hockey Edition)
#63511
Amor de Cosmos
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Queens Park Rangers & Hitchin Town Gender: Male Boris Karloff (if he wasn't a bit mouldy) Fig Newton The Way of all Flesh It's kinda like...err...y'know...like way cool man Da Capo Location: A cosy seat on the outer edge of the planet Birthdate: 1948-06-11
posted 10-07-2008 19:17

 
If it remains a Russian league that's probably true — at least in the short term. But if it becomes a European League, as the name suggests, things change considerably. To begin with it's very likely that top Scandinavian, Czech and other European players will see the league as a viable option, thereby reducing the NHL's talent pool — which will please Don Cherry — but few others. After that, while Emery and Chris Simon are hardly Iginla quality, if their experience turns out to be OK then better North Americans will slowly follow. Modern Football's experience suggests that most professional athletes will ultimately follow the biggest paycheque wherever it's being written.

If the top Russian players really want to play in the NHL and the Russian clubs continue to demand big transfer fees, we might see more and more Russian teenagers try to break into Major Junior in Canada or even high school and college hockey in the USA so that they can be drafted into the NHL without any Russian club getting its hooks in them.

I think that's a stretch. The KHL obviously has strong influence within the Russian government (cf: the story above.) It probably wouldn't be hard to quash that type of emigration.
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#63516
Amor de Cosmos
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posted 10-07-2008 19:23

 
finns learn English not Russian, and their wives and girlfriends are also reluctant to move to Siberia.

But would they feel the same about Moscow, St Petersburg or even Riga? After all no one is making them go where they don't want to. And, once again, for a really, really fat contract Jagr is quite willing to play in Omsk.
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#63518
posted 10-07-2008 19:30

 
QUOTE:
The KHL obviously has strong influence within the Russian government (cf: the story above.) It probably wouldn't be hard to quash that type of emigration.


I think it wouldn't be hard for enterprising North American agents and junior clubs to quash the KHL's quashing of that emigration and find a way to bring over promising youngsters one way or the other.

"Oh well, you see, he's not coming here primarily to play hockey. He's coming because his mother has much-in-demand, er [aside: Lorne, what is is that Svetlana does again? Bookkeeping?, umm, ok] specialized accounting skills and has taken a job at our local gypsum mine counting up the, ummm, gypsum for Mr. McLean. Yes, Mr. McLean also owns the local junior team, the rink, six other pits, and most of the real estate in this town, but that's just a coincidence."


Bombanersson's description rings true. I could be totally wrong about this, but my impression is that the owners of the Swedish and Finnish leagues, especially the owners of the most successful clubs, are fairly content with their station in the hockey world and aren't very interested in taking a huge financial risk to change it.
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#63522
posted 10-07-2008 19:37

 
QUOTE:
But would they feel the same about Moscow, St Petersburg or even Riga? After all no one is making them go where they don't want to. And, once again, for a really, really fat contract Jagr is quite willing to play in Omsk.


Right, but there are only a few of those and, if that article is correct, the teams will be limited on how many non-Russians they bring in, further limiting the opportunities. Even the oligarch's cash pile is not completely unlimited. And, if only a few teams are able to attract the big talent, the overall quality of the league isn't going to be very good and that will deter players and/or mean the KHL will have to pay more of a premium to attract NHL players.

So I imagine what we'll see is a trickle of slightly past-peak players like Jagr going over there, but nothing like a stream let alone a flood. It will, I think, be a bit like MLS with Beckham and Blanco.
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#63525
Amor de Cosmos
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posted 10-07-2008 19:42

 
my impression is that the owners of the Swedish and Finnish leagues, especially the owners of the most successful clubs, are fairly content with their station in the hockey world and aren't very interested in taking a huge financial risk to change it.

Could be, I dunno. But it might also be totally irrelevant. An "entrepreneur" from Russia, or somewhere else, might be quite willing to pour money into a small Finnish team on the off-chance that they'll turn into KHL titans. This is all about the $$$$$$$$$ (or the €€€€€€€€€€ or whatever it is they're being paid in.)
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Last Edit: 10-07-2008 19:43 By Amor de Cosmos.
 
#63528
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posted 10-07-2008 19:54

 
Jagr grew up in 1970s Czechoslovakia. After however many years of luxury in 5 star hotels and gated communities he is probably intrigued to observe people reliving his childhood eating their gruel in unheated apartments, while he doesn't even have to take a pay cut.

If someone wants to create a new team in Finland, and they market it right, then a European League could work. But of 24 teams, 21 are Russian and beating them will be tough. I think the bigger thing is going to be the Champions league, which is also funded by the nice Mr Medvedev (the hockey one, not the Deep purple fan). If that is successful, it might be that the shit-muncher owned CHL clubs are dumped and the a half Russian/half European league is created.
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#63533
Amor de Cosmos
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posted 10-07-2008 20:05

 
Right, but there are only a few of those and, if that article is correct, the teams will be limited on how many non-Russians they bring in, further limiting the opportunities.

I think almost half the league is in the Moscow or St Petersburg areas but I'm not really sure. Ursus? They're planning on expanding by six clubs next year most, if not all, outside Russia. I imagine the "non-Russian" rule could be changed very easily.

It will, I think, be a bit like MLS with Beckham and Blanco.

No way. First the overall quality/quantity of Russian hockey players is a lot higher than that of US soccer players. Second the KHL and the NHL are each others only competition. MLS has to compete for players with dozens of leagues of a higher, or equivalent, standard around the globe. The KHL has to be better than MLS, maybe not NHL quality yet, but potentially it could be.
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Last Edit: 10-07-2008 20:09 By Amor de Cosmos.
 
#63545
ursus arctos
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posted 10-07-2008 20:38

 
I'm much closer to Amor on virtually every question here, especially the attraction of a Russian/European league that plays under international rules (and with an international approach to goons) while paying NHL-type salaries to Russian and Central European players (and potentially higher salaries to what would be NHL journeymen, while arguably affording a higher quality of life to everyone, given relative costs of living).

The "mystique of the Cup" and general lure of the NHL may still exist in the current generation of players, but that can fade pretty quickly if a closer to home, more culturally similar and equally lucrative alternative presents itself. And if Reed thinks that North American agents are resourceful, he hasn't dealt with Gazprom.

Of course it may not happen (and BaN is right to highlight the potential alternative of the Champions League), but if I was the NHL, I would be looking at this quite seriously.

A cool Google Maps applicationwith all of the current KHL clubs.

One would imagine that the ideal league for them would be maybe 12 Russian clubs, with representation from the Baltics, Czech Republic, Finland, Sweden and Germany. That's a pretty attractive television product in some rich and sizeable markets.
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#63555
posted 10-07-2008 21:02

 
QUOTE:
I think almost half the league is in the Moscow or St Petersburg areas but I'm not really sure.


I know some of the clubs that NHL players went to during the lockout were in the hinterlands. Perhaps these teams won't be in the KHL.

Either way, I imagine that it will shake out such that there will only be a few really rich clubs per market. There will be the Chelsea and Arsenal of Moscow ice hockey, and then there will be the Leyton Orient of Moscow ice hockey.


QUOTE:
No way. First the overall quality/quantity of Russian hockey players is a lot higher than that of US soccer players.


I just meant that there'd be just a handful of these massive contracts thrown westward to lure a big NHL star. Granted, the its-a-shit-league premium won't need to be as high as it is for MLS because the marginal difference in quality of play is not as great.


The champions league model seems more likely in the near term, as a European Super League would no doubt have the same effect on the not-so rich hockey clubs in the domestic leagues as a football Super League would have on most European football clubs, and therefore the powers that be in those other countries would try to stop it.

I think the biggest threat isn't that the KHL will take away players like Ovechkin and Malkin, but that they'll get guys like Federov (although, apparently, not actually Federov) who may be a bit past it or journeymen who still have a lot to offer an NHL contender. That will erode the quality of the NHL.

As I said, the biggest impact may be to the AHL, which employs many of the Ray Emery's of the world. But as I said, perhaps that's for the best. It will force the AHL to be more development-oriented.


I don't know what Gazprom is.
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#63556
ursus arctos
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posted 10-07-2008 21:07

 
You should.

They will be the richest company in the world pretty soon; they are already second or third in terms of market capitalization.
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#63559
posted 10-07-2008 21:11

 
We'll see. I'm cautiously optimistic that oil won't be $150 a barrel forever.


Apparently, Khabarovsk, which has an entry in the KHL once had a team in the Asia league, which includes teams in Korea, Japan and now China.

So perhaps its possible that if this KHL takes off and starts to add non-Russian teams, we may see a league game between a team from Japan and a team from Germany.

It's not likely, but it could happen.
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#63562
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posted 10-07-2008 21:15

 
I know lots of Russians that think you are wrong. I got some right stick the other week for talking about commodity producers 'like Iran, Nigeria and Russia'. They're a Great Power, don't you know.
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#63565
ursus arctos
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posted 10-07-2008 21:20

 
You are a brave man. Gazprom's reserves of oil and (more importantly) gas are greater than those of any country in the world except Saudi Arabia and Iran.

I don't think that hockey is a big enough sport in Japan to make expansion in that direction interesting. And I should have added Kazakhstan to my earlier list. As to the local shakeout, that has largely happened already; the Moscow teams that are in the KHL are all backed by major players; there are no Leyton Orients.
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#63570
posted 10-07-2008 21:35

 
Yes, the map suggests that the league is already spread out across Russia plus a few neighbors. It's not so concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

BTW, is Moscow really a "desirable" place to move? From all I've heard from people going there, it's still fairly grim, very unfriendly, cold place with lots of idiots whipping around the streets at pantstaining speed running over pedestrians left, right and center.
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#63572
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posted 10-07-2008 21:39

 
The New York Rangers seem to sign some decent players with those disadvantages.