http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7467990.stm

Strategic in any way or a gesture of sheer despair?

I can't see it as anything other than sheer despair. Maybe there's a faint hope from some that by doing so it may force some others to act, I don't know.

My immedaite reaction was to wonder exactly how many of Tsvangerai's family members had a gun pointed at them when he made his announcement.

Can I just link this one up to my nil thread, if I may: http://www.wsc.co.uk/component/option,com_fireboard/Itemid,35/func,view/id,51070/catid,28/

Oh, I meant to say that I'd done that, the other day.

E10's groovy thread

I think it almost certainly is strategic. There was no chance of the election being "free and fair" (that boat sailed a couple of months ago), and Mugabe has said that he would not accept an election defeat anyway.

By participating in an election, Tsvangirai would have legitimised, in the eyes of cuntbuckets like Mbeki, the process. It's clear that pulling out is not a stunt by somebody who believes he has insufficient support. Everybody can see that the election couldn't have been regarded as fair. By pulling out, Tsvangirai is placing pressure on the SADC and on Mbeki, who know not only that the current situation is untenable, but that their friends in the West are going to be pissed off at the rape of democracy. Tsvangirai, who needs external engagement in Zimbabwe (of better quality than hitherto), is now hoping for such diplomatic pressure.

If his cause was concern for the victims of Zanu-PF's violence, he should have pulled out a long time ago. Absent a free and fair election, the regime's brutality served him.

Let it be clear that Tsvangirai is no Mandela. He is much better than Mugabe, which is a desperately low base to elevate oneself from.

To be honest, I think Mugabe has ceased to be the problem. By all accounts, the military now rules Zimbabwe, with Mugabe as a figurehead. I've heard from very good sources that North Korean military officers have appeared on the scene.

The SADC remains a key player in finding a resolution in Zimbabwe -- and Mbeki cannot be trusted to lead its diplomatic endeavours (though someone like Jacob Zuma would be well placed to mediate). Another key player is China. The West has leaned on China to change its policy on Darfur; it should do likewise to persuade China to intervene in the Zimbabwe crisis. The chance of that is, as they say, fat.

Right now, I'm not optimistic about Zim.

I quite agree with you, Yogi, that the real problem and real power is not Mugabe. It dismays me that this whole situation is being presented as if to suggest that it's all down to the vanity and evil desperation of one 84 year old man. Quite clearly, other people, significantly a Burmese-style cabal of Generals, are not exactly running the show, but basically running the show.

Whatever, I agree entirely with your last para. What kind of pressure is being brought to bear on Mbeki within South Africa, given the leverage he could have if he chose and given the impact of this situation on South Africa, what with the number of refugees only likely to increase in the next few weeks and months?

Refugees which are then attacked, beaten, raped, dispossessed and burnt to death by xenophobic thugs in South Africa.

Fucking Thabo Mbeki is a disaster on almost every level.

"To be honest, I think Mugabe has ceased to be the problem. By all accounts, the military now rules Zimbabwe, with Mugabe as a figurehead."

The story goes that Mugabi wanted to resign after the election defeat, so the army had to step in and apply heavy pressure to ensure that he would carry on. I'm sure they'll dump him after the election has been 'won'. He will be of no further use to them after that.

I don't think so. The junta will still need Mugabe as a figurehead. He has a cult following which the military needs – war veterans, green bombers youth etc. And they need Mugabe to put on a façade of legitimacy when dealing with the likes of Mbeki, who is respectful of Mugabe as an elder and "father of liberation". I don't think even Mbeki will let himself be wanked along by faceless military rulers or unelected Mugabe flunkeys.

Yogi, at what point does Jacob Zuma - whom I understand is somewhat less tolerant of Mugabe's antics than Mbeki - get to step in and say "right, that's it - clear off in 24 hours or we cut the power"? What's the timeline for him taking power?

And is there any good reason to think that MDC MPs - who now at least theoretically have a majority of seats - aren't going to get beaten senseless when they return to try to take their seats? Is there any chance that something like that would persuade Mbeki (or others in the SADC) to start exerting more pressure?

Zuma won't be president, if at all, until next May. What I hope for is that the ANC will tell Mbeki that the government should review its policy on Zim, and appoint Zuma mediator. Zuma has done some good (if not necessarily lasting) work in Burundi in that capacity.

How hardball Zuma would play it, I don't know. His faction in the ANC-led alliance would expect strong action, and Zuma might relish the opportunity to sort out Zim to ingratiate himself with the West.

SADC has to review its policy, too. Botswana and Zambia (as well as Tanzania), are very vocal about Zimbabwe; mostly because as border countries they have seen a huge influx of migrants. If Mbeki's government changes direction, the rest of SADC — except perhaps Angola and possibly Namibia — would fall into line.

The MDC's withdrawal gives Mbeki the opportunity to do so. His policy has been predicated on the supposed legitimacy of Mugabe's government. Surely he cannot claim in all seriousness that the regime continues to have any legitimacy whatsoever. With that, he could abandon his quiet diplomacy.

The key is last week’s meeting in Zim between Mbeki and his delegation and the Zanu-PF gang (the South Africans apparently did not meet with the MDC). The whole thing – agenda, outcome – has been kept under wraps. It may be that Tsvangirai's timing is related to that meeting, in some way or other. I hope Mbeki gave an ultimatum to legitimise the election (but I'm not particularly confident that he did do so). If so, Mugabe bitchslapped that idea by claiming that he is ruling by divine right.

Perhaps the MDC's decision is linked to whatever transpired at that meeting in some way.

QUOTE:
And is there any good reason to think that MDC MPs - who now at least theoretically have a majority of seats - aren't going to get beaten senseless when they return to try to take their seats?

There is very good reason to think they will be beaten. I expect mass arrests for treason, sedition and incitement. Already the MDC secretary-general is in detention, facing a treason trial for announcing election results and bribing election officials. I expect the regime will blame the beatings, mass rapes and murders of MDC supporters on the MDC, and have the party's officials arrested on trumped up charges.

QUOTE:
His policy has been predicated on the supposed legitimacy of Mugabe's government. Surely he cannot claim in all seriousness that the regime continues to have any legitimacy whatsoever. With that, he could abandon his quiet diplomacy.

Surely he couldn't claim that in all seriousness after the last elections - didn't stop him then. I'm deeply fatalistic about the situation. I can't see anything serious happening from the outside and the opposition is too demoralised and physically oppressed - it's going to have to come from within Zanu-PF or the military, which is deeply worrying in itself.

Apparently Tsvangirai is now hiding in the Dutch embassy in Harare.