JtS, It's actually very predictable as sports go. Because there are so many games, there's almost always "regression to the mean," i.e. the teams with talent may slump early, but they'll almost always recover (2007 Yankees). Likewise, a scrappy talent-light team may win a lot of games by the skin of their teeth early on, but then their luck will run out (2005 Nationals).

During the regular season, the teams with the most money will almost always be in first or second in their division, except there's usually one big money team every few years that is simply disfunctional and often this isn't clear until around mid-season (the Murdoch-era Dodgers come to mind). The lesser well-off teams will do poorly, in general, unless its the Twins or the A's in which case they'll make a good run of it put end up just out of the money in the end.

However, once the playoffs start, all bets are off. Anybody can get hot in the playoffs and win, although the team with the best three starting pitchers who aren't injured generally wins the world series.


My allegiances are torn. I was born and raised to be a Cincinnati Reds fan, but since my grandparents have passed on, we don't go to Cincinnati any more. My connection to the current team is very remote and I really only pay attention to them out of loyalty and nostalgia.

I've taken up rooting for the Nationals since I live in the DC area. I don't want to live in DC, but I'm stuck, so I figure "when in Rome..." Also, the Nats are in the same division as the Braves and the Mets, whom I hate.

I also keep an eye on the Twins since my best friend is a Twins fan in Minnesota.

I also follow the Pirates a little because their A-short season affiliate is my favorite minor league team, the mighty State College Spikes of the New York-Penn League.