If Clinton did win the nomination (say), what would the various US OTFers do? Hold their nose and vote for her? Third party? Abstain? (Just curious.)

I would hold my nose and vote for her in a heartbeat.

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He uses the word "folks".

"Folks" is/was pretty common in most places I've lived, as a type of informal word for second person plural (as in "these folks sure do like bowling"), or for one's parents (as in "my folks"). Similar to "folksy", which generally means unpretentious or affable.

Not all that similar to referring to the "folk" or "Volk", and, at least in the US, not particularly creepy. Certainly less creepy than McCain referring to everyone as "my friends".

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If Clinton did win the nomination (say), what would the various US OTFers do? Hold their nose and vote for her? Third party? Abstain? (Just curious.)

Like UA, I'd most likely vote for her, but with little joy. My choice between McCain and Clinton would most likely come down to Supreme Court appointments, as I have no faith in Clinton having a less hawkish foreign policy than McCain, and think she'd throw overboard any part of the left coalition if she thought it would help her win re-election in 2012

If McCain had a reasonable VP (unlikely) and promised centrist Supreme Court appointments (he has already promised the opposite), I'd still vote for Clinton, but it would be closer.

"Black folks" is an extremely popular and widely-used phrase in the African-American community.

Obama is the least bad candidate. He's a PR man, all smiles and no substance, but he's still preferable to the power-crazed Clinton and the mad warmonger McCain.

I've repeatedly mentioned that I don't think I could vote for Hillary. It would probably be an election day decision.

What are the odds of Leiberman being McCain's running mate?

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Obama is the least bad candidate. He's a PR man, all smiles and no substance, but he's still preferable to the power-crazed Clinton and the mad warmonger McCain.

HB, why do you think Obama has no substance? Or, I guess a better question would be, what do you define as meaningful "substance" for a presidential candidate?

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What are the odds of Leiberman being McCain's running mate?

I think somewhere between a longshot and no fucking way. While he'd most likely help with some independents, it would piss off his base and be unlikely to excite anyone new to vote. Lieberman was not great on the stump in 2000, so I'm not sure he adds much there. He comes off as older than he is, and so wouldn't make the McCain campaign seem more in touch.

Finally, though Lieberman is a Dem apostate, his politics are not to the right enough to be acceptable for a VP of a high-risk president (meaning, McCain's old and may not last 4 or 8 years).

I've read his book. I had to review it for work last year. I thought almost all of it was empty waffling and sugary cliches. The things that he had to say on poverty and racial strife were surprisingly orthodox and safe –- in some cases boiling down to little more than "Can't we all just get along?" –- and, at times, his pragmatic, wait-and-see outlook sounded more like an updated version of John Dewey than anything original.

The stuff about the economy was similarly vague, not in an ignorant, unknowing way, but in the sense that he sometimes didn't seem to know exactly what conclusions he was trying to arrive at.

His statements on Palestine/Israel have been nothing beyond the usual platitudes about needing to find a peaceful solution, unless I've missed something. Maybe he's suppressing his actual views on the subject in order to secure election, or maybe not.

I'm not keeping tabs on his campaign as closely as you probably are, so I don't know what kind of stuff he's been coming out with lately, apart from the well-publicised speech he made after the preacher episode erupted. Basically, after reading that book I think there's much less going on with Obama than meets the eye. I'd still rather he won than the other two, though.

Last night I watched the Senate questioning of General Petraeus and the rat-faced US ambassador to Iraq.

Clinton's line of questioning was designed to feed the hunger for soundbites. She sounded like she had been against the war all the time.

Barak sounded a bit like an inexperienced, slightly awkward journalist in his questioning. But he certainly knew what he was talking about, and tried to get to, as they say, "the heart of the matter". His line of questioning sounded like that one would use to sort out a mess.

Accusing him of having no depth vis-a-vis either Clinton or McCain seems a bit unfair.

And, bloody hell, if Obama is creepy, what the fuck are the other two?

HB,

I think that's a fair reading of "Audacity of Hope" (is that the one you read?), which, in many ways, is a typical pre-presidential run sort of affair (though he wrote it, rather than ghostwriters).

It's difficult, in a US campaign, to avoid certain types of pandering if you want to win. I'm not sure that's what we're seeing with his statements on Israel/Palestine, but his major foreign policy advisers tend to be the most understanding of the Palestinian cause in the US mainstream (in fact, the level of fear/paranoia of his stance on Israel among the older generation of American Jews is staggering).

Anyway, if you are defining "substance" as strong ideological progressivism, then I think you are right. For better or worse, the US is unlikely to have that sort of substance in a legitimate presidential contender in the near future. That being said, his having a real history in community organizing is at least some indication that he understands and sympathizes with the concerns of certain communities that many progressive policies are designed to help.

Usually in the US when he is accused of lacking substance, people generally mean that he is lacking knowledge or intelligence, an empty suit (like Dan Quayle, for example). My sense of him from his public statements, writings and from people who know him is that he is very smart (for example, his grades at Harvard Law School were extraordinary and the grading there is blind) and makes decisions with an open, though critical, mind. To give some flavor as to what I'm trying to convey, take a look at this article from Cass Sunstein (a well-respected left of center [in US, not European, geography] law professor who taught with Obama at U. of Chicago law school).

The way he discussed race, and his recent speech on the economy, showed a surprisingly nuanced understanding of the way the world works. I'm not sure this will regularly lead to the policies I want implemented, but I view it as refreshing in the current US political climate and not at all a lacking in substance.

Any thoughts from the Canadians on OTF as to Canadians apparently overwhelming preference for Obama over Clinton and McCain?

I think that's a fair reading of "Audacity of Hope" (is that the one you read?)

Yeah, that's the one. It's actually pretty well written by politicians' usual standards, but there's ultimately very little there when you get past the skilful use of imagery.

He's clearly not a moron, not by a long chalk. I just think most of the things he says are pretty hollow. If he gets in, we'll see how he does.

However, I have this awful feeling that someone will attempt to shoot him before November.

His eyes give me the creeps, Gyuri. The guy doesn't seem stable to me. Hilary Clinton is a corrupt bitch but at least a known quantity.

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The guy doesn't seem stable to me. Hilary Clinton is a corrupt bitch but at least a known quantity.

That's an interesting reaction, Max. He strikes me as one of the more emotionally stable mainstream US politicians (certainly more than the other two candidates), but I guess mileage varies widely on that.

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I just think most of the things he says are pretty hollow. If he gets in, we'll see how he does.

I understand how his main stump speech can seem relatively hollow, though I've found his comments in debates and his policy speeches to be much less so. For me, I think, it comes down to the fact that I trust his political instincts (on Iraq, constr