But at best, I think there's a 5% chance of that happening.

QUOTE:
But at best, I think there's a 5% chance of that happening.

Seriously? I'd give Ronaldinho at least a 50% chance of performing well. Or did you mean Milan have a 5% chance of winning the league? I'll bet against those odds any day...dalliance is probably right that the excitement of a new venue, and one he apparently has always wanted to play at, will bring out better play. At this point there needs to be some kind of corrective for the level of contempt this guy is inviting, it's distinctly faddish. True, before the last World Cup the hype was sky high (is he the greatest player in history? the Michael Jordan of soccer, etc) but that was because he was doing frigging amazing stuff. I clearly remember thinking then that I hadn't seen a player quite like him in my lifetime. And now after basically one season of injury and off form he's suddenly shit. Guess we'll see.

My main curiosity is how/whether he'll complement Kaka. Sometimes I think a team does better with one attacking midfielder of that sort rather than two.

Being off form and being an alcoholic (allegedly) are two entirely different things.

Hasn't Galliani said that Milan's mercato is done?

Doesn't the absence of any reinforcements at the back beyond Abbati and Zambrotta concern you after the last two seasons?

That is so, ad hoc. Do you have any information that Ronaldinho is an alcoholic? Are his close friends and family about to intervene? Do you think Berlusconi would spend what he did knowing there was a decent chance he was buying an "alcoholic"? I figure if he were that stupid he probably wouldn't be a billionaire.

ursus arctos wrote:

QUOTE:
Hasn't Galliani said that Milan's mercato is done?

Doesn't the absence of any reinforcements at the back beyond Abbati and Zambrotta concern you after the last two seasons?

Did you have any particular reinforcements in mind? Are you saying it's time to replace Nesta and Kaladze?

At least when Ronaldinho went to Barcelona he still had motivation to win some major prizes.
As soon as he did his form slumped, just as his international form declined after he won the World Cup with Brazil in 2002.

I'm not sure he has the motivation to try and drag Milan to win the Champions League, especially as that will take 2 years minimum. Is he that motivated to win the Serie A when he has a couple of Spanish titles locked away already ?

I realise he's not old and he could find new drive but the odds do seem to be stacked against him with the amount of legacy stuff he has built up now. Look at Ronaldo, his career effectively stalled at the age of 21 and apart from a good spell from the summer of 2002 to the end of the following season he has done little. Injuries blighted him more than Ronaldinho perhaps, but he didn't do the work to get back from them as rapidly as he could have most of the time.

Bruno, there were persistent rumours in Barcelona about his "issues" this spring being alcohol-related. Surely, those stories had something to do with Milan only having to pay 25 million for a player they were offering 60 million for a year ago and the fact that no one other than Thaksin was offering more.

As to the defence, I don't think you have a first class keeper (of course, this is not a new situation for Milan), that Kaladze is showing significant signs of strain, that Zambrotta was largely disappointing for Barca (though much better for Italy), that neither Bonera nor Oddo were completely convincing last season and that Favalli and Brocchi were worse than that. I also think that what appears to be a committment to all out attack up front will put additional strain on Gattuso, Flamini and Ambrosini (and that you probably can't play all three of them at once).

But I also think that Milan have a better than 5% chance of winning the league.

dalliance wrote:

QUOTE:
At least when Ronaldinho went to Barcelona he still had motivation to win some major prizes.
As soon as he did his form slumped, just as his international form declined after he won the World Cup with Brazil in 2002.

So he had no motivation to win a second World Cup, because once you've won one, the rest are just yawns. I'm rarely convinced by Green Lantern theories where a lack of success has to be attributed to a lack of will. Much more plausible explanations for his indifferent 2006 World Cup would be too much pressure to live up to his own hype and/or a lack of team chemistry.

QUOTE:
I'm not sure he has the motivation to try and drag Milan to win the Champions League, especially as that will take 2 years minimum. Is he that motivated to win the Serie A when he has a couple of Spanish titles locked away already ?

Given that such habitual complacency would guarantee that an athlete could never rise to that level in the first place, it's asking rather a lot to believe it instantly sets in once success is achieved. Getting to the top is hard and staying on top is harder. It's far from a given that his failure to sustain peak form was somehow a conscious decision.

QUOTE:
I realise he's not old and he could find new drive but the odds do seem to be stacked against him with the amount of legacy stuff he has built up now. Look at Ronaldo, his career effectively stalled at the age of 21 and apart from a good spell from the summer of 2002 to the end of the following season he has done little. Injuries blighted him more than Ronaldinho perhaps, but he didn't do the work to get back from them as rapidly as he could have most of the time.

So winning the World Cup and a third Player of the Year in 2002 was a "good spell" then. Ronaldo's career did indeed stall because of injury and he rather heroically made quite a comeback I think. Your prognosticating may be right; my point is it's still too early to write him off. And it would also be silly to heap scorn on him for perhaps not regaining his 2004-05 form if he still makes a meaningful contribution to the team. I wouldn't want to start judging players on their inability to be elected World Player each and every season.

ursus arctos wrote:

QUOTE:
Bruno, there were persistent rumours in Barcelona about his "issues" this spring being alcohol-related.

And it would be quite a leap from alcohol-related to alcoholism would it not. I'm sure partying and top-flight football don't mix, but that's different from suggesting he just can't help himself.

QUOTE:
Surely, those stories had something to do with Milan only having to pay 25 million for a player they were offering 60 million for a year ago and the fact that no one other than Thaksin was offering more.

Granted.

QUOTE:
As to the defence, I don't think you have a first class keeper (of course, this is not a new situation for Milan), that Kaladze is showing significant signs of strain, that Zambrotta was largely disappointing for Barca (though much better for Italy), that neither Bonera nor Oddo were completely convincing last season and that Favalli and Brocchi were worse than that. I also think that what appears to be a committment to all out attack up front will put additional strain on Gattuso, Flamini and Ambrosini (and that you probably can't play all three of them at once).

Yes we can criticize Milan for not having a bulletproof roster top to bottom, but then who does. They could certainly be a lot worse off, not to sound complacent. For me Nesta and Kaladze both have the job as long as they want it, and I can't think of any team that would spend real money to replace them yet. I'm not at all worried (yet) about Zambrotta, I think Milan is much better suited to him than Barcelona. But I am worried about the rest. Favalli is average, Brocchi is past it, Oddo needs to go, he does not deliver. But Bonera is somewhat underrated. I'm not sure why you couldn't play Gattuso, Flamini and Ambrosini at once.

Bottom line, I'm not predicting they'll win Serie A this season and I agree there needs to be more improvement in the fullback and midfield depts. I don't see the central defenders or keeper (Kalac) as being a big part of the problem, but admittedly my "analysis" is not exactly based on rigorous statistical observation.

5% chance of him playing as well as he did when he first joined Barca. I don't doubt he'll start better at Milan than he finished at Barca.

"I figure if he were that stupid he probably wouldn't be a billionaire."

Hahahhahaahahahahhaha.

Etienne wrote:

QUOTE:
5% chance of him playing as well as he did when he first joined Barca. I don't doubt he'll start better at Milan than he finished at Barca.

Who is asking him to play "as well as he did when he first joined Barcelona"? If anyone believed that he would have fetched a much higher price just now. The logic goes that he's still very much an impact player, and possibly one to be had at a modest bargain. Not that he's going to reconquer the world every season.

QUOTE:
"I figure if he were that stupid he probably wouldn't be a billionaire."

Hahahhahaahahahahhaha.

It wasn't a joke. Billionaires are generally pretty savvy at knowing whether to buy or sell. Knowing not to plop down millions on a known or likely alcoholic would not be placing Berlusconi's decision-making abilities at a very high premium. I expect a modicum of sensibility from him on that front. In short, I think the "he's an alcoholic" rumors are 99% likely to be wrong.

I'm sure it wasn't intended as a joke.

But a) in general people put far too much faith in the: so and so is very rich, thus s/he must be very smart, ignoring a long history of collossal misjudgements by billionaires in pretty much every area outside the one in which they made their fortunes - sport and politics being the two prime examples.

And more importantly b) Berlusconi personally has provided manifold examples of lack of good judgement.

To be clear, I wasn't intending to extol His Billionaireness' intelligence and impeccable judgment, rather was just making the point that I doubted he was as stupid as all that. Buying the wrong sort of player is one thing, throwing $33 million away on a known drunk is another. You don't need to know anything about sport not to do that, I would think.

And however manifold his poor judgment may be I wouldn't say AC Milan has exactly withered under his ownership.

A man who could give the job of equal opportunities minister to a person who believes that anti-gay discrimination doesn't exist any more is capable of anything.